Oct. 31, 2019

My Projected Boardings for an Osgoode-Dundas West Station Alignment of the Ontario Line

Here is my guesstimate of the number of boardings for an Osgoode-Dundas West Station vs Osgoode-Exhibition Place Alignment for the Ontario Line:

Based on the initial business case for the Ontario Line; "the Ontario Line has far more ridership potential than the Relief Line, with an estimated 389,000 boardings per day versus 206,000 boardings per day by 2041 - The Relief Line was envisioned to be a 7.5-km-long, eight-station extension of the subway, while the Ontario Line’s concept stretches a length of 15.5 kms with 15 stations reaching new and larger service areas" - dailyhivedotcom; so using this same analogy; an Osgoode-Dundas West Station alignment might be 446,000 boardings per day vs 389,000 boardings per day for the proposed Ontario Line Osgoode-Exhibition Place alignment - The Dundas West alignment would be a 17.8-km-long line, relieving the second busiest subway station (St. George), and reaching even larger service areas than the 15.5 km-long Ontario Line

Here are my calcs:

Relief Line 
- 206,000 boardings/day/7.5 kms = 27,466 boardings/day/km

Ontario Line 
- 389,000 boardings/day/15.5 kms = 25,096 boardings/day/km

Therefore; extrapolating this with a huge allowance skewing numbers in favour of Ford's proposal:

Ontario Line (Dundas West Alignment) 
- 25,096** boardings/day/km * 17.8 kms = 446,708 boardings/day

** The boardings along a Dundas West Alignment would surely exceed those of the Exhibition Place Alignment

NOW DO YOUR COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS!!!

https://dailyhive.com/toronto/metrolinx-initial-business-case-ontario-line-july-2019#.Xbl4XpfzHho.link